18-26年1&2月居民存贷款余额趋势 [复制链接]

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18年存款72万亿，贷款47.9万亿<h-char unicode="ff08" class="biaodian cjk bd-open bd-jiya" style="text-align: justify; font-size: 16px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(16, 20, 35); font-family: "Biaodian Pro Sans GB", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, "pingfang sc", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, STHeiti, SimSun, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box;"><h-inner style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-left: -0.5em;">（其中住房贷款25.8万亿<h-char unicode="ff09" class="biaodian cjk bd-close bd-end bd-jiya" style="text-align: justify; font-size: 16px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(16, 20, 35); font-family: "Biaodian Pro Sans GB", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, "pingfang sc", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, STHeiti, SimSun, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box;"><h-inner style="box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: -0.5em;">） B}&xaY  
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19年存款82万亿<h-char unicode="3001" class="biaodian cjk bd-end bd-cop bd-hangable bd-jiya" style="box-sizing: border-box; position: relative;"><h-inner style="box-sizing: border-box; text-emphasis: none; position: absolute; left: 0px; top: 0px; display: inline-block; line-height: 1.1; letter-spacing: -0.5em;">、贷款55.3万亿<h-char unicode="ff08" class="biaodian cjk bd-open bd-jiya" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><h-inner style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-left: -0.5em;">（其中住房贷款30.1万亿<h-char unicode="ff09" class="biaodian cjk bd-close bd-end bd-jiya" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><h-inner style="box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: -0.5em;">）20年存款93万亿<h-char unicode="3001" class="biaodian cjk bd-end bd-cop bd-hangable bd-jiya" style="box-sizing: border-box; position: relative;"><h-inner style="box-sizing: border-box; text-emphasis: none; position: absolute; left: 0px; top: 0px; display: inline-block; line-height: 1.1; letter-spacing: -0.5em;">、贷款63.2万亿<h-char unicode="ff08" class="biaodian cjk bd-open bd-jiya" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><h-inner style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-left: -0.5em;">（其中住房贷款34.4万亿<h-char unicode="ff09" class="biaodian cjk bd-close bd-end bd-jiya" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><h-inner style="box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: -0.5em;">）21年存款103万亿<h-char unicode="3001" class="biaodian cjk bd-end bd-cop bd-hangable bd-jiya" style="box-sizing: border-box; position: relative;"><h-inner style="box-sizing: border-box; text-emphasis: none; position: absolute; left: 0px; top: 0px; display: inline-block; line-height: 1.1; letter-spacing: -0.5em;">、贷款71.1万亿<h-char unicode="ff08" class="biaodian cjk bd-open bd-jiya" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><h-inner style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-left: -0.5em;">（其中住房贷款38.3万亿<h-char unicode="ff09" class="biaodian cjk bd-close bd-end bd-jiya" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><h-inner style="box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: -0.5em;">）22年存款121万亿<h-char unicode="3001" class="biaodian cjk bd-end bd-cop bd-hangable bd-jiya" style="box-sizing: border-box; position: relative;"><h-inner style="box-sizing: border-box; text-emphasis: none; position: absolute; left: 0px; top: 0px; display: inline-block; line-height: 1.1; letter-spacing: -0.5em;">、贷款74.9万亿<h-char unicode="ff08" class="biaodian cjk bd-open bd-jiya" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><h-inner style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-left: -0.5em;">（其中住房贷款38.8万亿<h-char unicode="ff09" class="biaodian cjk bd-close bd-end bd-jiya" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><h-inner style="box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: -0.5em;">）23年存款137.5万亿<h-char unicode="3001" class="biaodian cjk bd-end bd-cop bd-hangable bd-jiya" style="box-sizing: border-box; position: relative;"><h-inner style="box-sizing: border-box; text-emphasis: none; position: absolute; left: 0px; top: 0px; display: inline-block; line-height: 1.1; letter-spacing: -0.5em;">、贷款79.2万亿<h-char unicode="ff08" class="biaodian cjk bd-open bd-jiya" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><h-inner style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-left: -0.5em;">（其中住房贷款38.2万亿<h-char unicode="ff09" class="biaodian cjk bd-close bd-end bd-jiya" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><h-inner style="box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: -0.5em;">）24年存款151.8万亿<h-char unicode="3001" class="biaodian cjk bd-end bd-cop bd-hangable bd-jiya" style="box-sizing: border-box; position: relative;"><h-inner style="box-sizing: border-box; text-emphasis: none; position: absolute; left: 0px; top: 0px; display: inline-block; line-height: 1.1; letter-spacing: -0.5em;">、贷款81.9万亿<h-char unicode="ff08" class="biaodian cjk bd-open bd-jiya" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><h-inner style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-left: -0.5em;">（其中住房贷款37.79万亿<h-char unicode="ff09" class="biaodian cjk bd-close bd-end bd-jiya" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><h-inner style="box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: -0.5em;">）25年存款166.44万亿<h-char unicode="3001" class="biaodian cjk bd-end bd-cop bd-hangable bd-jiya" style="box-sizing: border-box; position: relative;"><h-inner style="box-sizing: border-box; text-emphasis: none; position: absolute; left: 0px; top: 0px; display: inline-block; line-height: 1.1; letter-spacing: -0.5em;">、贷款82.34万亿<h-char unicode="ff08" class="biaodian cjk bd-open bd-jiya" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><h-inner style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-left: -0.5em;">（其中住房贷款39.07万亿<h-char unicode="ff09" class="biaodian cjk bd-close bd-end bd-jiya" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><h-inner style="box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: -0.5em;">）26年1&2月存款<h-char unicode="ff1a" class="biaodian cjk bd-end bd-jiya" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><h-inner style="box-sizing: border-box;">：171.68万亿<h-char unicode="3001" class="biaodian cjk bd-end bd-cop bd-hangable bd-jiya" style="box-sizing: border-box; position: relative;"><h-inner style="box-sizing: border-box; text-emphasis: none; font-weight: normal; position: absolute; left: 0px; top: 0px; display: inline-block; line-height: 1.1; letter-spacing: -0.5em;">、贷款81.98万亿<h-char unicode="ff08" class="biaodian cjk bd-open bd-jiya" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><h-inner style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-left: -0.5em;">（其中住房贷款39.24万亿<h-char unicode="ff09" class="biaodian cjk bd-close bd-end bd-jiya" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><h-inner style="box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: -0.5em;">） 9t#S= DP  
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26年前两个月住户存款增加5.24万亿元<h-char unicode="3001" class="biaodian cjk bd-end bd-cop bd-hangable bd-jiya" style="box-sizing: border-box; position: relative;"><h-inner style="box-sizing: border-box; text-emphasis: none; font-weight: normal; position: absolute; left: 0px; top: 0px; display: inline-block; line-height: 1.1; letter-spacing: -0.5em;">、住户贷款减少1942亿元<h-char unicode="ff08" class="biaodian cjk bd-open bd-jiya" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><h-inner style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-left: -0.5em;">（其中<h-char unicode="ff0c" class="biaodian cjk bd-end bd-cop bd-hangable bd-jiya" style="box-sizing: border-box; position: relative;"><h-inner style="box-sizing: border-box; text-emphasis: none; font-weight: normal; position: absolute; left: 0px; top: 0px; display: inline-block; line-height: 1.1; letter-spacing: -0.5em;">，短期贷款减少3596亿元<h-char unicode="ff0c" class="biaodian cjk bd-end bd-cop bd-hangable bd-jiya" style="box-sizing: border-box; position: relative;"><h-inner style="box-sizing: border-box; text-emphasis: none; font-weight: normal; position: absolute; left: 0px; top: 0px; display: inline-block; line-height: 1.1; letter-spacing: -0.5em;">，中长期贷款增加1654亿元<h-char unicode="3002" class="biaodian cjk bd-end bd-cop bd-jiya bd-consecutive" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><h-inner style="box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: -0.5em;">。<h-char unicode="ff09" class="biaodian cjk bd-close bd-end bd-jiya bd-consecutive end-portion" prev="bd-end bd-cop" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><h-inner style="box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: -0.5em;">） 7Ddaf>   
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人口减少，<h-char unicode="3001" class="biaodian cjk bd-end bd-cop bd-hangable bd-jiya" style="box-sizing: border-box; position: relative;"><h-inner style="box-sizing: border-box; text-emphasis: none; font-weight: normal; position: absolute; left: 0px; top: 0px; display: inline-block; line-height: 1.1; letter-spacing: -0.5em;">、存款变多，<h-char unicode="3001" class="biaodian cjk bd-end bd-cop bd-hangable bd-jiya" style="box-sizing: border-box; position: relative;"><h-inner style="box-sizing: border-box; text-emphasis: none; font-weight: normal; position: absolute; left: 0px; top: 0px; display: inline-block; line-height: 1.1; letter-spacing: -0.5em;">、贷款减少。 cwL1/DGDB  
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此外从住房贷款数据来看， 从21年开始就没有变化。意味这老百姓贷不动了。存贷差持续走阔，反映“预防性储蓄”仍占据主导。 2026年年初数据显示，居民存款总额已冲破171万亿，而贷款余额较2025年底反而下降。尤其是短期贷款的大幅减少（-3596亿），说明春节消费成色不足及居民对短期杠杆的极度排斥；中长期贷款微增仅靠政策性支撑，内生性购房需求依然疲软。 1rDqa(7  
市场预期差：市场原预期2026年政策发力后信贷会“开门红”，但数据呈现出明显的**“冷热不均”**：资金在银行体系空转，居民端不愿消费、不愿投资、不愿贷款，形成了强烈的“通缩预期自实现”。 sn?]n~z  
历史对标：类比1990年代日本泡沫破裂后的资产负债表衰退期，居民端进入长期的“债务最小化”而非“利润最大化”阶段 :P(K2q3  
因此现金为王比较稳妥，买房投资要慎重！ =F;.l@: